U.S. soybean exports ‘surge’ in markets other than China, global share still declines

U.S. soybean shipments to China fell to nearly zero at the end of the 2024/2025 marketing year and the start of 2025/2026, but exports to other destinations climbed to their highest levels since 2018, according to USDA.

The soybean marketing year runs from Sept. 1 through Aug. 31. USDA said the jump in non-China shipments was largely tied to U.S. prices being lower than Brazil’s, with Chinese tariffs adding pressure on U.S. products. USDA also pointed to Argentina’s temporary elimination of export taxes last September, which helped drive a counter-seasonal export surge in November and further affected the U.S. share of global trade.

USDA projects U.S. soybean exports in 2025/2026 will drop to about 1.58 billion bushels (42.9 million tons), the lowest level in 13 years, with a record-low 23% share of global soybean trade. Exports are projected to recover to 1.7 billion bushels in 2026/2027, but USDA expects the U.S. share to keep trending down over the long term as South American supplies grow, including a record Brazilian crop.

Separately, the U.S. Soybean Export Council reported U.S. soy exports rose nearly 13% in 2024/2025 to 68.7 million metric tons. Whole bean exports increased to 51.2 million metric tons, soybean meal to 16.3 million metric tons, and soybean oil to 1.1 million metric tons. The export council said soybean oil gains were led by India, with Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela and the Dominican Republic also among the top markets.

China was still the largest single market in 2024/2025, taking 22.6 million metric tons valued at $9.8 billion, according to the American Soybean Association. The association said it’s too early to know whether stronger buying from other markets will carry into 2025/2026, as trade policy remains in flux. The export council listed the top five growth markets over the past five years as Turkey, Vietnam, Venezuela, Colombia and Bangladesh.

Why it matters

• USDA expects U.S. soybean exports and global market share to fall in 2025/2026, even as shipments to non-China markets have strengthened.
• Price competition and shifting South American export patterns are influencing where U.S. soy moves and how much global share the U.S. holds.
• China remains the biggest customer, but the industry is watching whether commitments and trade policy changes translate into steady purchases.

What to do next

• Track USDA export projections and weekly shipment data as the 2025/2026 marketing year develops.
• Watch for updates on trade policy and buying activity from China and other growth markets highlighted by the export council.

Source

Original reporting by capitalpress.com: https://capitalpress.com/2026/02/23/u-s-soybean-exports-surge-in-markets-other-than-china-global-share-still-declines/